Crude Oil Price Hike Alert: Trump’s Sanctions on Russia Could Hit India Hard

Crude oil prices may hit $120 per barrel due to Donald Trump’s sanctions on Russia. Find out how it will impact India’s fuel, food, and everyday expenses.

Tensions between the United States and Russia are heating up once again, and this time it could directly impact your wallet. Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly taken an aggressive stance against Russia over the Ukraine war, even going as far as deploying two nuclear submarines near Russian waters. But that’s not all—Trump has also announced strict trade tariffs and penalties, which will affect countries continuing to buy crude oil from Russia, including India.

Trump’s Sanctions and Crude Oil Price Forecast

Reports suggest that Donald Trump is planning new trade sanctions on Russia, which could disrupt the global oil supply chain. Crude oil prices, already volatile, could spike significantly due to these sanctions. According to global market experts:

• Brent Crude Oil may reach $76 per barrel by October 2025, and possibly climb up to $82 by the end of 2025.
• WTI (West Texas Intermediate) Crude is expected to rise from its current average of $69.65 to between $76–$79 per barrel by September 2025.

If the sanctions significantly reduce Russia’s oil exports—estimated at 5 million barrels per day—the global crude oil price could soar to $100–$120 per barrel.

How Will India Be Affected by Rising Crude Oil Prices?

India imports around 35% to 50% of its crude oil from Russia, primarily because of discounted rates. While India won’t face a crude oil supply shortage—thanks to its diversified oil portfolio from over 40 countries—it will still be vulnerable to rising crude oil prices.

Here’s how it can affect the Indian economy:

• Higher petrol and diesel prices could lead to increased transportation and logistics costs.
• LPG gas prices may also see an uptick, impacting household budgets.
• Indian refinery companies, heavily reliant on Russian oil since 2022, may face sanctions and tariffs if they continue trade. This will directly impact domestic inflation, which had previously been managed due to cheap Russian oil.

Which Everyday Items May Get Expensive?

If crude oil prices increase, the impact will be widespread across several sectors in India:

• Fuel Prices: Petrol, diesel, and LPG cylinders could become costlier.
• Food Inflation: Prices of vegetables, milk, fruits, and packaged goods may rise due to expensive transportation.
• Construction & Industry: Costs of plastics, steel, cement, and chemicals will go up, affecting infrastructure and manufacturing.
• Transport and Delivery: Expect a hike in bus, truck, auto, taxi fares, and even e-commerce delivery charges.

Conclusion: Prepare for a Possible Surge in Living Costs

With the possibility of crude oil prices reaching $120 per barrel, Indian consumers and businesses must brace for higher costs. The ripple effect of Donald Trump’s Russia sanctions could touch every aspect of daily life—from your fuel bill to your grocery list.

While India may navigate the supply crunch through strategic imports, it can’t escape the global oil price rise. If trade restrictions on Russia are enforced globally, India’s crude oil imports and its broader economy could face significant challenges in the coming months.